Archive

20 editions, newest first.

1. No. 020 · Fri, 2 Oct 2026The gilt long end takes out 6%, the term-premium shock goes global, and Australia pays for it without the AI offsetterm-premium shock goes global; the long end sets the price
2. No. 019 · Thu, 1 Oct 2026October halves on a print the BEA rewrote, and the long end makes a new high anywaypolicy repriced dovish, term premium unrelieved
3. No. 018 · Wed, 30 Sept 2026Bullock hikes and blinks, crude gives back the Hormuz premium, and the S&P closes through 7,680energy shock receding, term-premium shock persisting
4. No. 017 · Tue, 29 Sept 2026Gold breaks $4,200 as the October hike goes to three-in-four, and the RBA hikes today into a curve that says 4.60% is not the topthe energy shock is now transmitting as a real-rate shock
5. No. 016 · Mon, 28 Sept 2026Friday bought a Hormuz deal that was dead by Saturday, the long bond set a new high while Treasury was buying it, and the RBA hikes tomorrow into a softening front endenergy shock plus a demand shock
6. No. 015 · Fri, 25 Sept 2026The bond rout goes global, Tokyo reopens at a thirty-year high, and Australian unemployment rises into a hike that is now 96% pricedenergy shock plus a demand shock
7. No. 014 · Thu, 24 Sept 2026The economy booms, the five-year breaks 5% for the first time since 2007, and the house steepener stops outenergy shock plus a demand shock
8. No. 013 · Wed, 23 Sept 2026Washington and Tehran talk for three hours, oil breaks $100, and the S&P closes dead flatenergy-shock tightening — unchanged, but under its first real test
9. No. 012 · Tue, 22 Sept 2026Oil breaks to $100, Wall Street rallies 1.5%, and the steepener survives its stop by a basis pointenergy-shock tightening
10. No. 011 · Mon, 21 Sept 2026The hike bear-flattens the week, the yen falls on a BoJ hike, and Xi lands in Washington on Thursdayenergy-shock tightening — the path is ratified and the curve is bear-flattening; the strip prices above the committee's own median
11. No. 010 · Fri, 18 Sept 2026Equities buy the hike, the strip prices the next one, and the Bank of England stops selling giltsenergy-shock tightening — the path is ratified; equities are re-risking into a strip that keeps repricing hawkish
12. No. 009 · Thu, 17 Sept 2026Warsh hikes, the dots come to the market, and the long end refuses to followenergy-shock tightening — the path is ratified; the terminal is the trade
13. No. 008 · Wed, 16 Sept 2026The survey's nightmare is the survey's position, the ten-year closed at 5%, and the dots land in eight hoursenergy-shock tightening — the hike is priced; the path is the trade
14. No. 007 · Tue, 15 Sept 2026The ten-year touched 5%, the Gulf's off-ramp closed, and the dots are 30bp behind the stripenergy-shock tightening — the hike is priced; the path is the trade
15. No. 006 · Mon, 14 Sept 2026Core CPI settles the hike — the dots, the expiry and the yen are the tradeenergy-shock tightening — the hike is priced; the path is the trade
16. No. 005 · Fri, 11 Sept 2026Brent takes $108, the ECB hikes into it, and every long end in the world makes a new highenergy-shock tightening — the hike is now the base case, not the risk
17. No. 004 · Thu, 10 Sept 2026The Navy sinks five tankers, Brent takes $100, and Sydney opens into itenergy-shock tightening
18. No. 003 · Wed, 9 Sept 2026Saudi refineries burn, Brent nears $100, and the Australian consumer cracksenergy-shock tightening
19. No. 002 · Tue, 8 Sept 2026Metals break out, the yen squeezes, Germany's firewall holds by three seatsenergy-shock tightening
20. No. 001 · Mon, 7 Sept 2026Payrolls kill the hold, the Gulf escalates, Germany breaks the firewallenergy-shock tightening